SMM Aluminum Morning Brief on 9.12
Futures side, during the previous trading day's night session, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2510 contract opened at 20,975 yuan/mt, reached a high of 21,025 yuan/mt, a low of 20,930 yuan/mt, and closed at 21,005 yuan/mt, up 0.43% from the previous close. LME aluminum opened at $2,622/mt, hit a high of $2,679.5/mt, a low of $2,621.5/mt, and closed at $2,679/mt, up 2.17% from the previous close.
Currently, the aluminum market's macro front shows a multi-dimensional bullish resonance pattern, providing strong support for aluminum prices. On the macro front, US August CPI grew 2.9% YoY, while core CPI increased 3.1% YoY, largely in line with expectations, reinforcing market bets on a US Fed interest rate cut. US initial jobless claims for the last week were 263,000, compared with estimates of 235,000 and a prior value of 237,000, marking a near four-year high. Mexico announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on China and other countries. Spokesperson Lin Jian stated at yesterday's regular press conference that China firmly opposes restrictions imposed under coercion under various pretexts that harm China's legitimate rights and interests, and will resolutely safeguard its own rights and interests based on the actual situation. Fundamentals side, according to SMM statistics, on September 11, social inventory of aluminum ingots in three regions totaled 467,500 mt, down 5,500 mt from the previous trading day. For domestic aluminum billet inventory in two regions, Guangdong aluminum billet inventory stood at 59,500 mt, Wuxi aluminum billet inventory at 25,500 mt, totaling 85,000 mt, down 500 mt from the previous period. Overall, the macro environment remains supportive; fundamentals side, downstream demand shows marginal improvement, the proportion of liquid aluminum has increased, casting ingot volume has decreased, but the turning point for aluminum ingot inventory has not yet arrived, actual demand has not significantly improved, downstream enterprises face limited upward cost space, yet expectations for interest rate cuts and the peak season persist, supporting aluminum prices. Subsequent aluminum prices still depend on the realization of the peak consumption season.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
